To develop an effective strategy for the development of Russia's ABK in a crisis, new methods and models are needed to predict the further development of the global diamond business. The global financial crisis affected the condition of the diamond pipeline in 2008, but 2009 will be even more indicative. It is likely that the relationship between the main parts of the diamond pipeline can drastically change.

To determine their values, the three main components of the global diamond pipeline - the sale of diamonds, diamonds and diamond jewelry in 2001-2008 - were analyzed using a three-component diagram that is commonly used in physical chemistry and metallurgy in the study of multiphase systems (Figure 1) . Analysis of the chart shows the growth in the share of the diamond mining industry up to 2005, with an almost constant share of the lapidary industry (falling out of the point in 2005 means a crisis in the diamond-border segment). Further, the share of the diamond jewelry sales segment is growing. Undoubtedly, the economic crisis will lead to a decrease in diamond sales.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/26174.html

The only positive moment of the unprecedented crisis, in which the diamond market is today, is a sharp activation of the participants in the search for new solutions and models that allow for an effective restructuring that meets modern challenges.

One of the creative breakthroughs may be a joint initiative of the MC "Leader" and ALROSA on the organization of the investment diamond market. Despite the obvious difficulties associated with the need to create a practically "from scratch" the ramified infrastructure of such a market, this idea looks extremely attractive, as it allows to circumvent the known objective limitations, due to which the diamond can not act as an exchange commodity, and get the full tools of the stock market in The form of closed mutual funds, the units of which will be provided with the cost of investment grade diamonds. It remains to be regretted that such a program was not implemented two years ago, when the stability of the trend for raising prices for diamonds and diamonds could not cause any doubts among potential investors.

The main argument in favor of creating a market for investment diamonds is the assertion that the price for large (from 3 carats and above) stones with good characteristics has almost continuously grown in the foreseeable historical retrospect, and therefore such assets are the coveted "quiet harbor" for the investor. With minor reservations - for example, the need to correlate the rise in prices for diamonds and diamonds with the level of inflation - this statement can be considered fair. But what was the reason for this permanent growth? The main, and probably the only reason, was the very specific organization of the global diamond market - a single-channel "diamond pipeline", the ability to manage pricing, regulating the supply of raw materials at the entrance. The abandonment of such an organization quickly enough - for several years - led to the inflating of huge speculative bubbles, to the emergence of uncontrolled drains, to the paradoxical situation when raw materials began to cost more than finished products. It is hardly a big exaggeration to say that the cause of the current crisis in the diamond market is not so much the global economic crisis as the destruction of the canonical single-channel system. The coincidence of these negative phenomena over time has produced a resonance effect, and therefore the diamond market looks much worse today than all other commodity markets. That the reason for the current crisis in the diamond market is not so much the global economic crisis as the destruction of the canonical single-channel system. The coincidence of these negative phenomena over time has produced a resonance effect, and therefore the diamond market looks much worse today than all other commodity markets. That the reason for the current crisis in the diamond market is not so much the global economic crisis as the destruction of the canonical single-channel system. The coincidence of these negative phenomena over time has produced a resonance effect, and therefore the diamond market looks much worse today than all other commodity markets.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/24178.html

A sharp jump in prices for large-scale and high-quality rough diamonds caused lively polemics in the professional environment. As objective reasons, representatives of the leading mining companies are called: the need to switch to a subterranean mode of production, at which the prime cost of diamond products increases substantially, as well as the decrease in the share of quality raw materials in the current production cutoff due to the depletion of the main indigenous deposits. Both factors are in principle recognized by opponents representing the lapidary industry, but the rate of price growth causes at least perplexity in this camp - against the background of extremely weak jewelry markets of the USA, Japan and Europe, an adequate increase in diamond prices looks unlikely and expensive raw materials will cause the industry to work long "To the warehouse," which can lead to losses of critical dimensions.

Is the amplitude of the June jump in prices an artifact caused by short-term subjective or, perhaps, speculative reasons or before us a stable trend, indicating a fundamental change in the diamond market? Does the new price reflect only the cost of construction of underground mines or is it an indicator of close structural transformations that radically change not only the position of the players but also the rules of the game themselves? If we analyze the current situation within the framework of the generally accepted paradigm that regards the diamond and diamond markets as classical commodity markets, then, in the face of the apparently long-term stagnation of jewelry markets in the countries that are the main consumers of diamond jewelry, new prices look beyond the bounds of the market, Corresponding to the balance of supply and demand.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/16831.html

Mining holding company Anglo American and diamond mining company De Beers, being a part of this group, published their activity reports for 2008. The global economic crisis began to affect the activities of the largest mining companies, including Anglo American. In 2008, its total revenue decreased by 7.6% (Tables 1 and 2). However, if you take into account that she got rid of two activities - gold mining and paper production and packaging materials, which together accounted for more than $ 5 billion, then without taking them into account, the gain would increase by 7.9%. This is natural, since before the beginning of August 2008, when the prices of mineral raw materials and oil reached the zenith, all the economic indicators of the world mining companies were growing. And thus, Even a sharp decline in prices and demand for mineral raw materials due to the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter of the year could not seriously affect the economic results. However, already in 2009 the picture can dramatically change for the worse.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/22896.html

In early February 2009, it became known that the largest producers of rough diamonds - De Beers, ALROSA, Hungary Billiton, Rio Tinto and Harry Winston Diamond Corp. - intend to implement a joint marketing project "Generic Diamond Marketing". Any significant details of this initiative by the participants are not disclosed yet, it is announced only about the creation of SteeringCom (SteerCom) and the involvement of the consulting firm McKinsey & Company to develop a mechanism for financing the project.

Marketing is a loose concept, and SteerCom's activities can be limited to conducting diamond advertising campaigns, but it can also form the basis for consultations of leading diamond manufacturers aimed at returning the diamond market to its "canonical form" - to monopoly regulation of raw material prices. In this case, the five largest diamond companies will act as a kind of "collective De Beers", or, if you will, the "diamond OPEC". This is a radical solution, in comparison with which all other options look more or less successful palliatives, leading only to a short-term galvanization of the market, but not capable of ensuring its stable development for the next few decades.

Indeed, any advertising campaign for diamonds, no matter in which countries it is conducted and for whatever strata it is designed, can not but contain the thesis about the increasing in time cost of diamonds. Any motive of acquiring a diamond - as a symbol of social status, as a gift of love or even more as an investment tool - simply excludes the possibility of a prolonged and noticeable drop in its value. The existence of a market for permanently cheaper diamonds is probably possible in a very short time, with a very costly advertising effort aimed at convincing the consumer that prices will soon turn. This practice is extremely dangerous, Because deceiving the expectations thus formed will mean the rapid destruction of the diamond market with unpredictable consequences. But the history of the "diamond pipeline" does not know another mechanism for a guaranteed increase in the price of diamonds, except as a monopoly on rough diamonds. It would be incorrect to say that the rejection of the monopoly regulation of the diamond market served as the sole cause of his current deplorable state, but at the same time it is obvious that " Supplier of Choice" is not a strategy that will surely push off from today's bottom.

The financial condition of each company from the "big diamond five" is far from ideal today. De Beers resorts to large-scale layoffs and reduces production, the market capitalization of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton has fallen by more than 50% over the past year, the expected merger of these mining giants has not taken place, the companies announced a significant reduction in personnel engaged in diamond mining and production Of rough diamonds. At the Diavik deposit (the joint property of Harry Winston Diamond Corp. and Rio Tinto), due to lack of funds, the construction of the underground mine is significantly delayed and staff is being reduced. Alrosa can still be considered a happy exception to this gloomy list, as Gokhran buys its products through budgetary funds.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/22646.html

Gold is becoming an increasingly popular commodity. Russian Gokhran, who once gave all the gold to the Central Bank, now, according to Interfax, is forming its own gold reserve, which may indicate that in this turbulent time, yellow metal is considered a "quiet haven" for state assets. Burning their fingers on the game with all sorts of derivatives, private investors are also "running away" into metal, which creates additional and considerable pressure on the gold market. The price of this metal recently stopped at $ 837 per troy ounce and, as experts say, has a general tendency to increase rather than decrease. According to the median forecast of 20 analysts polled by Bloomberg, the average price for a troy ounce in 2009 will be 910 dollars, and four of them predict, That by the end of the year gold will rise in price to 1000 dollars. The volume of gold turnover in 2008 increased by 58% worldwide, and the total volume of gold trading last year, according to International Financial Services London ( IFSL) , reached a record $ 20.2 trillion. All this indicates that after a stroke that overtook the US financial system, the dollar and the world financial system tied to it ceased to be trusted, which led to a global gold rush.

This process signals that currently there is a hidden maneuvering of resources, during which the national currencies tend to take the most advantageous position in relation to the dollar in anticipation of further developments. In essence, this means a move toward weakening of currencies in order to support their export opportunities. Or, in other words, save the chance to send your problems to others, instead of getting them from outside. However, the bustle of this kind ultimately forces everyone to change paper money for gold in order to protect themselves. The Russian ruble is not an exception. Further events, including the fate of the dollar assets accumulated in the world, as well as the entire world system of settlements in American currency, will largely be related to the economic policy that the new US administration will choose.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/21690.html

The situation in the market at the end of the outgoing year can be characterized simply - the market, as it was imagined in August, no. There is no understanding of demand, huge flows across the pipeline, no credit money, the aggregate of all these factors gives a logical result - there is no price. Consequently, the main intrigue of the first months of 2009 will be the struggle for price.

Soon the market will understand what the real dynamics of demand for products with diamonds, and on the basis of this, manufacturers and dealers will form their own consumer list.

Equally entertaining is the situation in the foundation of the market - mining. The diamond-dependent countries in Africa are unlikely to show long-suffering, as this is a matter of the revenue side of national budgets. In addition, the cost of developing African deposits allows them to sufficiently "go" down the price. De Beers traditionally aims to prevent uncontrolled pricing. However, today their authority and influence on African governments may not be enough.

The diamond sector is a relatively small part in the budgets of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, but the financial condition of these companies today is far from ideal and it is unlikely that efforts to save this part of the business are priorities for them.

In these conditions, Russia's position is significant, extracting more than all diamonds in the world in karat calculus. This position, apparently, is that by the end of the outgoing year, ALROSA has left the market. Objectively, the Russian company possesses all the attributes necessary for such a step: its deposits are located on the sovereign part of Russia, the company itself is owned by the state and enjoys its support, which is the possibility of buying out the raw materials extracted by ALROSA by the state. And most importantly, ALROSA is probably more interested in preserving the high cost of raw materials, since the cost of production in the extreme climatic conditions of Western Yakutia can not be compared with Botswana or Namibia. It is clear that the reserves of ALROSA, which allow it to work in stock and not thus reduce prices, are also not endless. The financial "cushion" ALROSA Gokhran is able to provide depends significantly on the world prices for hydrocarbons - the basis of Russia's exports and budget. If the price of Urals is below $ 40 per barrel in the next 4 to 6 months, the prospects for purchases of diamonds from your company by the Russian state will worsen.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/21194.html

The global crisis continues to test all areas of the diamond pipeline for strength. Among the last significant events: the decision of the management of Leumi Bank of Israel to stop crediting operations with rough diamonds, a significant drop in jewelry sales in retail chains in Japan, a negative acceleration in jewelry Internet trading, the braking of the acquisition of Archangel Diamond Corporation (a subsidiary of De Beers) 49.9% of the package "Arkhangelskgeoldobycha" and, accordingly, - uncertainty in the prospects for development of the Verkhotinskoye field, a sharp reduction in the net profit of ALROSA.

On this negative background, the optimistic expectations of the management of 4C-Diamonds, one of the few companies specializing in operations with investment diamonds, stand out. Vice President 4C-Diamonds Michael Thorner believes that diamonds in the era of the crisis are fully capable of fulfilling the role of a full-fledged investment object and comparable in their appeal to traditional commodities commodities. According to M.Torner, now the most attractive for investments are three-kart. If the price of significantly more rare diamonds in the range of 5 to 10 carats today still fell within 10%, then the two- and three-kart carriers are still successfully withstanding the onslaught of the crisis and the investment portfolios built on this base did not upset their owners. In November and the first decade of December, demand for investment diamonds of this dimension began to grow steadily, which inspires cautious optimism. M.Torner also predicts a significant revival of the market for investment diamonds in the first half of 2009.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/20768.html

The financial crisis exacerbated the discussion of pricing principles in the global diamond market. The position of the largest producers of rough diamonds by De Beers and ALROSA, which announced a significant reduction in supply for price stabilization, was sharply criticized by the well-known expert Chaim Even-Zohar (October 30, 2008). Criticism of Even-Zohar is essentially reduced to the protection of classical liberal thesis - the only fair pricing mechanism is the balance of supply and demand in the free market, any deviations from this principle are negative phenomena, since they increase the risk of monopolization. Monopoly is a priori an evil, the meaning of existence is the robbery of the remaining market participants. Of course, The energetic rhetoric of Even-Zohar is quite capable of provoking tenderness among Karl Marx's few admirers, but it seems unlikely that the expert addressed his text to such a specific audience, alas, infinitely far from the realities of the diamond market. For those who are connected with this market, the position of Even-Zohar causes, at least, bewilderment.

Imagine for a moment that Even-Zohar's argument is flawless and the market decided to immediately follow his manifesto: the extracting companies do not reduce the supply, the cutters and dealers acquire the raw materials of exactly the characteristics they need at the moment, the price is set as a result of free trade, There are no regulators in the market. It can hardly be doubted that in this case, prices for rough diamonds will fall, and the decline is likely to be a landslide, That in the view of Even-Zohar, "true market levels" is obvious.

In such an impeccably free market, the fate of the extractive companies looks unenviable, but, at first glance, the cutters and dealers will prosper and, in the final analysis, consumers of jewelry with diamonds. "Lower prices - more demand" - it's just like a work of "hip-hop" culture. Indeed, if the prices for products, for example, Volkswagen reduce today by 30-40%, instead of the sales crisis, we will see the queue. But such an attractive logic ceases to work, if we recall the specifics of the diamond as a commodity.

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/19266.html

The diamond was offered to several gemological laboratories in Moscow. The initial information was not reported to the experts. One laboratory defined the diamond as natural, modified by the thermobaric annealing method. The rest successfully coped with the task, defining the diamond as synthetic. All experts immediately paid attention to the color of the diamond ("there is no such thing in nature", "color is insolent", "color is defiant") - this was the initial identification sign. The second and main criterion for identification was the pronounced cruciform zoning of the color, characteristic for diamonds made from single crystals grown using the "BARS" technology. This characteristic is established if the diamond is cut "center" of the original synthetic crystal, If a peripheral part of the crystal was taken for cutting, the definition of this feature would be difficult or impossible at all.
According to thermal conductivity, electrical conductivity and refraction, the diamond did not differ from natural. Spectrophotometry did not determine the presence of nickel and iron - catalysts used in the "Adamas BSU" technology.
None of the experts could identify the manufacturer, some uncertainly assumed the Novosibirsk or Israeli origin of the diamond.
The quality of the cut was all rated as "good." Spectrophotometry did not determine the presence of nickel and iron - catalysts used in the "Adamas BSU" technology. None of the experts could identify the manufacturer, some uncertainly assumed the Novosibirsk or Israeli origin of the diamond. The quality of the cut was all rated as "good." Spectrophotometry did not determine the presence of nickel and iron - catalysts used in the "Adamas BSU" technology. None of the experts could identify the manufacturer, some uncertainly assumed the Novosibirsk or Israeli origin of the diamond. The quality of the cut was all rated as "good."

http://rough-polished.com/ru/analytics/18020.html