The rough diamond market in the III quarter of 2009 showed impressive growth. The main producers of diamonds were able to raise about $ 2.5 billion for their products - this is comparable to pre-crisis sales volumes. The distribution of shares in the market is also close to the pre-crisis period: 48% for De Beers, 22% for ALROSA (excluding sales to Gokhran), 9% and 6% for BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto respectively, the rest went to small producers. The prices for raw materials have appreciably grown - on the average up to 40% from the level of the February lows.

The beginning of the fourth quarter also looks optimistic. De Beers announced the restoration of production to 80% of the pre-crisis and a significant increase in demand for its products. ALROSA managed to sell diamonds on the market in October for $ 255 million at prices significantly higher than the price list of Gokhran.

The revival in the rough diamond market continues to contrast with the diamond market, where the price increase at best is calculated in units of percent. The labor market in the US also does not give rise to optimism: last week the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose from 514 thousand to 531 thousand, while the expected growth was only up to 515 thousand. Imports of polished in the US continue to be low, Not exceeding the cost of 50% of the 2008 levels. The dynamics of the labor market in the United States raises serious concerns about the fact that Christmas sales in 2010 will be no better than in the failed 2009.

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Experts predict a bright future for the gold market, which only strengthened as a result of the global financial and economic crisis, which was contributed, in particular, by an unprecedented appetite among investors.

Recently, the price of gold set a new record - at the auction on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the troy ounce went up to 1093.1 dollars.

According to the participants of the tenth conference, organized in London on November 2-3 in the London Bullion Market, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers a little over a year ago, investors literally pounced on gold.

Last month, yellow metal hit $ 1,070.80 an ounce, beating the previous historical record of $ 1,032.70 recorded in the spring of 2008. Since then, the price of gold has never dropped below $ 1,000, and since the beginning of this year has increased by 20%.

According to Mark Lynam, head of the world's third largest gold mining company, the "barbarian relic," as he figuratively calls gold, is very reliable, despite the fact that in the short term they are difficult to predict.

Favorable factors for gold experts call it a decrease in the volume of its production, which was noted since the beginning of the decade and is caused by a decrease in production returns on old gold mines, as well as a shortage of new gold mines and an increase in production costs.

Director of the Swiss company PAMP, one of the largest producers of gold coins and ingots, Mehdi Barkhordar, for his part, believes that the demand for gold began to grow due to the global crisis, which entailed "fundamental changes in market dynamics."

Gold suddenly became a safe haven for European and American investors who rediscovered its advantages, because unlike other types of financial investments such as stocks and bonds, it is not tied to an issuer that can go bankrupt.

According to Aram Shismanian, the head of the World Gold Council, the global crisis "transformed the yellow metal, making it not only intended for specialists."

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The birth of a coalition government in Zimbabwe, in which President Robert Mugabe works side by side with his long-time political opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai, now Prime Minister, has brought considerable relief to the troubled but mineral-rich country.

After working for several weeks in the government, Tsvangirai reported that Harare plans to amend the bill on mining, approved by the Cabinet in 2006, but never became law.

If this bill became law, foreign companies would not be allowed to own more than 49% of any business and they would have to sell any stake in excess of this rate to Zimbabweans.

Minerals covered by this legislation included gold, diamonds and platinum.

"We are reviewing it (a bill on mining). The new coalition government hopes to come to an agreement on a new local property rule that would be comfortable for investors, but at the same time beneficial for a rich country, "Tsvangirai said.

Minister of Mining Industry Development Obert Mpofu recently reported at a conference in South Africa on mining issues that the revision of the draft law is aimed at establishing a balance between attracting investors and nationalizing joint ventures.

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The recovery of the global diamond industry is already taking place, but this process will not be quick - this is the main conclusion reached by the 2009 Antwerp Diamond Symposium participants, who finished work in Belgian Antwerp the day before. The Symposium was the last in a series of conferences organized by the Antwerp World Diamond Center to analyze the state of the global diamond industry and discuss its prospects.

This year the topic of the symposium was "Diamond Industry in the New Economy". The discussion was attended by leading industry experts and representatives of the sectors related to the diamond industry. They exchanged views on the state of business and markets during the period when the world economy recovered after the global financial and economic crisis. As noted in the forum's conclusions, after one of the most difficult years that the global diamond industry has ever experienced, 2010 is likely to be a year of growth for it.

According to the head of the Antwerp World Diamond Center Freddy J. Hanard, the actors of the diamond market need to act today, predicting the situation and its consequences - this is the key to success. In this regard, the current symposium has become another contribution to understanding how to move ahead in the changing business environment as a result of the global financial and economic crisis. "I have no doubt that the various ideas delivered through this symposium will be put into practice in the coming months," Hanard said.

The forum participants stated that, despite the extremely difficult conditions in which the industry was in the last 18 months, the number of bankruptcies among its subjects did not exceed the level predicted in the pre-crisis period.

Ensuring market stability was the result of the policy of diamond mining companies that reduced production and "frozen" diamond sales during the first half of this year, as well as banks that retained the level of lending to the diamond industry.

Participants in the 2009 Antwerp Diamond Symposium also expressed their concern over the 30% increase in prices for rough diamonds over the past six months, despite the fact that there was no growth in the average price of polished diamonds. In this regard, the experts who spoke spoke of the danger of creating a new speculative price bubble.

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Financial experts like to say that the crisis is in fact a new opportunity. The current global economic downturn is not an exception. It turns out that he opens the prospect for the diamond sector in terms of revising some of the most controversial methods of doing business in it? Can such a change create a more solid foundation for this business in the future for this business? These questions were asked by Antwerp Facets portal in the analysis devoted to the practice of transferring goods for sale in diamonds trading.

Over the past 15 years or so, the practice of doing business in the diamond sector has undergone significant changes. Diamonds have always been sold mainly for money, and payment of bills was made regularly, usually at the end of the working week. Precious stones literally cost money, as the seller received this money immediately. Nevertheless, despite the fact that producers of rough diamonds continue to sell diamonds, they receive money immediately, at the diamond end of this business in kings there is a loan.

Transformation of trade in diamonds into a business experiencing a shortage of money is not explained solely by one single reason. Its role in this definitely played the policy of the largest producers of rough diamonds. Strict control over the circle of customers contributed to the creation of an industry dependent on supplies, which led to the fact that often the prices of rough diamonds grew faster than the prices for diamonds. The requirement for diamond manufacturers to participate in marketing initiatives of raw material processors often resulted in overhead costs that were higher than planned.

What was a relatively simple business, has turned into a much more complex kind of activity. Manufacturers of diamonds began to offer retailers more and more long-term loans, to transfer goods for sale, and even with the right to return. Dealers working with diamonds gave their goods to retailers, in effect telling them that they can pay for them when they have money.

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Commenting on the outcome of the G20 finance ministers' summit, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said that unemployment growth will continue and reach a peak in 2010. A number of analysts in the US, Japan and the EU published a similar forecast just before the summit. These estimates appear to be sufficiently substantiated and make certainty in the short term development of the global diamond and diamond market. Since the growth of unemployment and the decline in the purchasing power of the population are tightly interlinked, the guaranteed decline in global demand for diamond products will last about a year, therefore, the rise in prices for rough diamonds has no objective basis and the speculative potential of diamonds will soon be close to zero . But a year is a short time, Especially given the relatively low turnover of funds in the diamond and diamond business. Therefore, dealers considering the possibility of acquiring diamonds at the current prices of the leading diamond mining companies with the expectation of speculative potential growth, would certainly like to receive an indicator (at least qualitative) that allows to determine with a high probability the moment from which the purchasing power of the population will begin - first of all in the USA , Which, in fact, will mean a real end to the crisis for the diamond and diamond market.

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India is the world's largest producer of diamonds. 90% of the world's lapidary capacities and 80% of workers of different degrees of qualification (up to 1 million people) are located here. The state of the Indian diamond market is an important indicator of the global diamond economy, greatly shaken by the global economic crisis.

In recent years, India imports about 100 million carats of diamonds worth about 10 billion dollars a year. Statistics of the Indian Council for the Promotion of the Export of Gemstones and Jewelry (GJEPC) 1990-2005 shows that Belgium and England (the Antwerp diamond center and De Beers) remain the main suppliers of raw materials, accounting for 75% of the raw material flow. About 20% are provided by Israel, Hong Kong and the UAE. That is, the leaders of the Indian lapidary industry still prefer to purchase rough diamonds in the countries-intermediaries. Direct deliveries from Russia were insignificant. Negotiations on direct supplies from Africa (Botswana, Namibia, etc.) are conducted in a slow regime. However, over the past year, the interest of Indian diamantaires in relation to direct supplies of raw materials has increased significantly. This is evident from the increase in purchases in Moscow and Yakutsk.

The volume of polished exports is volatile. Volatility intensified during the acute phase of the crisis (autumn 2008 - summer 2009). Thus, the largest decline - by 40% - compared to the previous year was observed in January 2009. Until August 2009, there was a comparative decline in exports compared to 2008. And from September to December 2009, India's polished exports increased by 12-129% per month. In general, in 2009 polished exports amounted to $ 12 billion, which is 4.6% more than in 2008. In carats, the growth in exports grew even more, reaching + 18%. The main export direction in 2009 was Hong Kong, pushing the United States. So, if in 1997 the volume of exports there amounted to Rs 25 billion, now it is equal to Rs 180 billion, that is, for 13 years the export to Hong Kong grew by 7 times. Obviously, Hong Kong is not the final buyer, but a convenient transit point. India is also making vigorous efforts to penetrate new markets - Russia and the Middle East. However, access to the Russian market is blocked by a 20% import duty.

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The acronym Chindia (Kindia) has recently been called the new economic system - a combination of rapidly growing economies of China and India, which are entrusted with the main hopes for overcoming the global economic crisis. In 2009, these countries demonstrated a convincing GDP growth: China by 8.7%, India by 6.7%. Prospects for 2010 are even more rosy - China should add 10.1% (experts forecast Merril Lynch), and India - 7% (forecast by IMF experts). If you consider that the most optimistic forecast for the US for 2010 provides for GDP growth of 2.5%, Japan - 0.9%, and the EU - 0.6% (UN experts forecast), then Kindia really can be considered as the main , And perhaps the only reliable generator of consumer demand, capable of keeping afloat the luxury markets and the diamond market in the first place.

Currently, about 1% of Chinese and Indian citizens have incomes equal to or larger than the average incomes of US citizens. But, given the huge population - only according to official statistics 1.3 billion in China and 1.2 billion in India - the absolute number of people potentially able to acquire luxury goods is approaching 250 million. And if we take into account the significant amount of " Informal sector ", then, most likely, this figure will exceed 250 million, which is already comparable with the US population.

The number of official holders of billions of states at the end of 2009 - 130 in China and 52 in India - also looks quite impressive (in the US - 359). Expert estimates of the number of millionth states strongly differ mainly due to the problem with data on the "informal sector": Boston Consulting Group, for example, estimates the number of Chinese millionaires at the end of 2009 at 450,000, and the Shanghai Hurun Report agency is inclined to estimate the number of " Hidden Chinese millionaires "in 800 thousand. According to India, the data fluctuates in the range of 130-300 thousand owners of millionth states. If we take into account the estimates of the cumulative number of millionth states in Kindia, taking into account the "informal sector", we must admit that their number has already exceeded a million (in the US about 4 million). It should also take into account the qualitative changes in the wealthy layer: When the first list of the richest people of China was compiled in 1999, the "entry fee" in the top 50 was $ 6 million. Now the lower bar, allowing to get into the first thousand richest Chinese, is $ 150 million; From 2004 to 2009, the average income of the richest 10 percent grew by 255% (an assessment by Credit Suisse experts). Since 2004, the savings rate in China has fallen by half - from 24% to 12%.

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At the end of 2009, the French bank Societe Generale released the report "The Worst Debt Scenario", which promises a terrible collapse of the global economy in the next two years. The French explained that all the "anti-crisis measures" of the current governments simply transferred private debt to the backs of state budgets. Public debts and their relation to the volumes of GDP have become too great even for the richest countries. In the next two years, the national debt of the UK will grow to 105% of GDP, in the USA and eurozone countries - up to 125%, in Japan - up to 270%. But this is only public debts.

If you take the total debts, then the situation is much worse. So, the leading consumer of diamonds, the United States, is this: 16 trillion dollars - Treasury obligations (US Treasury); Still the same amount - corporate sector liabilities; 8 trillion - state and municipal debts; More than 13 trillion dollars - debts of households; The uncovered liabilities of medical and pension insurance systems are about 30 trillion. In total, we get 80 trillion. Only for the maintenance of this debt pyramid, Americans should spend from 3 to 5 trillion dollars a year. Already, one third of the GDP of the United States is spent on debt servicing.

California as the most advanced state of America shows us in a time ahead scenario of events: technical default; The introduction of money surrogates; Reduction of workplaces; Beggar survival.

Similar to the USA, other industrial countries are also worried about big financial problems (only Germany is in relative prosperity, since it has powerful and competitive machinery, chemistry and a number of other advanced industries).

The collapse of the old financial system with the development of hyperinflation, barter and the transformation of the West into a Soviet likeness in 1991 may not be so fantastic. According to the Assay Chamber and the Guild of Jewelers of Russia, the consumption of jewelry products in the period of the increase in acute crisis phenomena decreased by 3-4 times. In the mid-1980s, the jewelry industry of the USSR at the peak processed about 60 tons of gold solely for domestic consumption.

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The Beijing Axis Group, an international intermediary and working with Chinese mining companies and natural resource companies, is confident that the extraction industry expects more deals to be concluded between China and Africa in the next two years.

At the presentation during the recently concluded Mining Indaba conference, held in South Africa under the title "China and Africa - Transformation of Business", the founder and managing director of the Beijing Axis group, Kobus van der Warth, said that the level of Chinese investment in the sector Africa's extraction is negligible compared to the extent of the participation of this Asian giant in the affairs of the continent in the years to come.

"The Chinese demonstrate courage, and they have the potential and resources that support their intentions," notes Kobus van der Wart. - China has emerged from a crisis-induced recession in a better, than ever, form and with good prospects for 2010. China's economy, stimulated by public investment, left the financial crisis behind and moved ahead, demonstrating an 8 percent GDP growth in 2009 ".

He also said that China is ready for testing in 2010 and the next stage of its "unabated growth."

The head of Beijing Axis recently noted that, although China's economy is currently vulnerable, by the fourth quarter of this year, its growth is likely to resume.

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